Paris Agreement at Risk: Trump again threatens U.S. exit
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, represents one of the most significant global commitments to address the climate crisis, involving nearly every country in the world. This treaty aims to keep global temperature rise "well below 2°C" above pre-industrial levels, with an ideal goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, with Donald Trump's re-election as President of the United States, U.S. commitment to the agreement is once again at risk, creating new uncertainties ahead of the COP in Baku.
Re-election and withdrawal promises
Despite the U.S. rejoining the Paris Agreement under the Biden administration, Trump has repeatedly voiced his disapproval of this decision. With his recent re-election, the president has already announced his intent to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement once more, citing economic protection and national independence as reasons. Ahead of the Conference of the Parties (COP) set to take place in Baku, Trump has reaffirmed his intent to exit the Paris Agreement, emphasizing that its environmental targets impose excessive constraints on the American economy, particularly in sectors such as energy, coal, and oil.
Trump's reasons for another withdrawal
Trump’s motivations align with those he expressed during his first term, with some updates reflecting current economic and geopolitical conditions
Protection of the Energy industry
Amidst a global context of rising inflation and increased economic competition, Trump argues that the climate regulations outlined in the Paris Agreement hinder the development and competitiveness of the U.S. energy industry. The president advocates for greater energy independence through domestic fossil fuel exploitation, asserting that the agreement would disadvantage the United States compared to other countries that continue to rely heavily on coal and oil.
National sovereignty and independence
Trump views the Paris Agreement as an intrusion on national sovereignty, as it imposes commitments that could interfere with U.S. domestic decision-making. The president has stated that the priority should be to put "America First" without being constrained by regulations that could economically disadvantage the country on a global level.
Skepticism toward the agreement's benefits
Trump has reiterated his skeptical stance on the effectiveness of climate measures. According to the president, the commitments made by various countries would not be enough to concretely impact climate change. In his view, U.S. investments to meet climate targets could instead be redirected toward infrastructure and employment at the national level, providing immediate benefits for the population.
Implications of the decision ahead of COP Baku
The potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could have significant repercussions in the lead-up to COP Baku
Uncertainty in Global Climate Leadership
As the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the U.S. plays a crucial role in international climate cooperation. The withdrawal would deal a substantial blow to the credibility and effectiveness of the Paris Agreement, as other countries might reduce or delay their climate commitments, following the U.S. example.
International Economic Effects
A U.S. withdrawal could also have global economic implications, particularly for energy markets and related industries. Without shared standards, competition between countries might shift toward less environmentally friendly policies, reducing investments in renewable energy and putting global emission reduction goals at risk.
Divisions within the United States
Within the U.S., this decision is also controversial. Many states, especially in California and along the northeastern coast, continue to support more ambitious climate policies, regardless of federal directives. These states may choose to pursue autonomous commitments to meet climate goals, highlighting the divide between federal and local policies.
Pressure on International Alliances
Trump’s decision could strain diplomatic relations with other signatories of the agreement, including the U.S.’s long-standing allies in Europe and Asia. These countries, which continue to invest in the transition to a low-emission economy, might view the U.S. abandonment of the Agreement with concern, potentially compromising diplomatic relations on other fronts.
